Thailand’s caretaker prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul is set to begin coalition negotiations after his conservative Bhumjaithai Party delivered a shock performance in Sunday’s general election, emerging as the largest bloc in parliament.
Preliminary forecasts showed Bhumjaithai winning close to 200 seats, putting it well ahead of rival parties but still short of an outright majority in the 500-seat lower house. The strong showing positions Anutin firmly at the centre of government formation talks in the coming days.
The progressive People’s Party followed with just over 100 seats, while Pheu Thai — linked to jailed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra — placed third and is widely viewed as a potential coalition partner. Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai were previously allies before parting ways over a scandal tied to the Cambodia border dispute. Thaksin is currently serving a one-year prison sentence for corruption, though political observers speculate his release could be expedited as part of a broader political deal.
Anutin, who assumed the premiership in September, was cautious when asked about coalition prospects. “We will wait until things are clearer. Every party must first consult its executive board before taking a position,” he said.
Political analyst Napon Jatusripitak said Bhumjaithai is expected to move swiftly to form the next government. “Based on the seat distribution, Bhumjaithai is likely to lead an administration where its influence is dominant,” he said, describing the outcome as a rare breakthrough for conservative politics in Thailand.
The incoming government faces a demanding agenda, including sluggish economic growth and the growing impact of multibillion-dollar cyber scam networks. However, the most pressing challenge remains the long-running dispute with Cambodia, which flared into open conflict in July and December, resulting in dozens of deaths and the displacement of nearly one million people.
Analysts believe the border crisis played a decisive role in the election, fuelling a surge of nationalist sentiment that boosted Anutin’s support. “Thailand will continue on the same trajectory we’ve seen over the past three months — nationalism, a firm stance on Cambodia and continuity in economic policy,” said Thammasat University politics lecturer Virot Ali.
Shortly after taking office, Anutin authorised the military to take whatever action it deemed necessary along the border. Thai forces later seized control of several disputed areas during the December clashes, with a fragile ceasefire now holding.
Addressing supporters at a rally in Sisaket province last week, Anutin declared: “Once I became prime minister, everything we once lost has come back to be ours again.” However, Paul Chambers, an associate senior fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, warned that the election outcome could further loosen civilian oversight of the military.
Napon noted that the result marked the first time in many years that a conservative party had emerged as the single largest force in parliament. “In that sense, this election may have resolved a recurring dilemma in Thai politics,” he said.
Meanwhile, a referendum held alongside the election indicated that around 60% of voters support constitutional reform in principle. With Bhumjaithai now in a position of strength, the party is expected to steer the reform process — though its conservative leanings suggest sweeping changes are unlikely.
