Malaysia could experience temperatures exceeding 40°C next year if a forecast Super El Nino develops at its strongest intensity, the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) has warned.
MetMalaysia director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said the impact of the phenomenon would typically begin to be felt towards the end of the Northeast Monsoon season, around March and April, particularly in northern states of the peninsula.
He said the peak of the extreme heat was expected to coincide with the equinox during the same period, potentially causing temperatures to surge to dangerous levels.
“The highest daily temperature ever recorded in the country was 40.1°C in Chuping, Perlis, during the 1997/1998 Super El Nino.
“Given that the forecast phenomenon could be stronger than previous episodes, coupled with global warming, it is not impossible for temperatures to surpass that record and reach 40.5°C or even 41°C,” he said during the Fokus 30 programme titled ‘Super El Nino: Kesan Kepada Negara’ on BERNAMA Radio today.
Mohd Hisham said Muslims could also be fasting and celebrating Hari Raya in extremely hot conditions next year, and advised the public to avoid unnecessary outdoor activities and visits for the sake of their health and safety.
He explained that the sun would be directly overhead during the equinox, while reduced cloud cover caused by dry conditions could increase direct exposure to heat.
“Without sufficient cloud cover, prolonged exposure to heat can have adverse effects,” he said.
However, Mohd Hisham said Malaysia was currently experiencing a normal El Nino phase, which would need to progress gradually from weak to moderate, strong and eventually very strong or Super El Nino conditions towards the end of this year.
Malaysia has previously experienced three Super El Nino episodes, in 1982/1983, 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, all of which brought extreme heat to the country.
The phenomenon is generally linked to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can affect global atmospheric conditions and lead to significantly reduced rainfall and drier weather.
Mohd Hisham said prolonged dry conditions could also increase the risk of severe haze caused by open burning.
“Based on previous records, we have experienced periods of up to 70 consecutive days without rain in northern areas such as Langkawi and Alor Setar. A similarly long dry spell could occur again during this phenomenon,” he said, urging the public to make early preparations.
He also warned that Malaysia could face a more serious water supply crisis next year as the phenomenon reaches its peak.
Prolonged dry weather and delays in significant rainfall could further reduce water levels at dams in several states that are already experiencing supply disruptions.
“We are concerned that when Super El Nino reaches its peak early next year, the situation could become more severe. During a previous strong Super El Nino episode, we saw dams in Melaka dry up completely,” he said.
Mohd Hisham urged the public to prepare early and rely only on verified weather information from MetMalaysia’s official website or the myCuaca application, while avoiding the spread of unverified information on social media.
