The global community, including Malaysia, is bracing for the return of a potent El Nino weather phenomenon expected to commence around the middle of this year. Experts indicate a probability exceeding 70 per cent for its return, with the likelihood surging to between 80 and 90 per cent by the conclusion of 2026. According to Professor Dr Fredolin Tajudin Tangang, a Fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, data from the Climate Prediction Centre in the United States suggests the onset of this warming phase will likely occur between July and August.
Current meteorological projections suggest that the phenomenon will continue to develop through the latter half of the year and into early 2027. It is anticipated to remain influential before gradually weakening between March and April, eventually concluding around May next year. At present, Malaysia is navigating the tail end of the Northeast Monsoon, which typically dissipates by late March, before transitioning into the monsoon inter-season phase throughout April and May.
During this upcoming transitional phase, the nation’s weather is expected to be dominated by local convective systems, which often result in intense thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over short durations. Such conditions carry a high potential for triggering flash floods, particularly across the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Additionally, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will play a role in local weather patterns, occasionally causing suppressed convection that leads to reduced cloud cover, less rain, and periods of significant heat.
Professor Fredolin noted that the current hot spells, particularly those felt in the northern states of the peninsula, are attributed to high atmospheric pressure and suppressed convection caused by the MJO across Southeast Asia. This specific situation allows for increased solar radiation to reach the Earth’s surface while simultaneously reducing the cooling effects typically provided by evaporation. While these conditions can trigger temporary heatwaves, they are generally transient, lasting between one and two weeks before weather patterns shift again.
The world is currently exiting the final stages of a La Nina event that began in mid-2025, moving toward a neutral state within the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This natural cycle involves the complex interaction between the atmosphere and the Pacific Ocean, rotating through El Nino, La Nina, and neutral phases every two to five years. Historically, El Nino has been a major driver of record-breaking global temperatures, as seen in 2024 when the global average reached 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, marking it as the hottest year on record.
Although global temperatures saw a slight dip in 2025 due to the cooling influence of La Nina, that year still ranked as the third warmest on record due to the overarching effects of global warming. Should a strong El Nino return as predicted, experts believe there is a very high probability that 2026 could set a new record as the hottest year in history. The combination of natural climate variability and long-term global warming continues to push regional and global temperatures toward unprecedented territory.
