The Amazon rainforest could face a fresh surge in deforestation as Brazilian farming interests push to overturn a long-standing ban on soya grown on land cleared after 2008.
The Amazon Soy Moratorium, widely credited with reducing deforestation, has been hailed as a global environmental success. But politicians and powerful agribusinesses argue the ban is anti-competitive and limits economic growth, particularly as Brazil hosts the ongoing COP30 UN climate conference.
Environmental groups warn that lifting the ban would be disastrous, paving the way for land grabbing and large-scale soya cultivation in the world’s largest rainforest. Scientists caution that ongoing deforestation, coupled with climate change, may be driving the Amazon toward a “tipping point” beyond which it can no longer sustain itself.
Brazil is the world’s largest soya producer, and much of the crop is used as animal feed. Around 10% of the soya imported to the UK, used in chicken, beef, pork, and farmed fish, comes from the Brazilian Amazon. Major UK food companies, including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, M&S, Aldi, Lidl, McDonald’s, Greggs, and KFC, back the ban to ensure their supply chains remain deforestation-free. A WWF survey found 70% of the UK public supports government action against illegal deforestation.
Opponents of the moratorium, including the Soya Farmers Association of Pará, argue that the ban limits agricultural growth and unfairly targets soya while other crops like corn or rice can still be planted. The debate has divided the Brazilian government, with the Justice Ministry considering potential anti-competitive violations, while the Environment Ministry and Federal Public Prosecutors defend the moratorium.
First signed almost two decades ago by farmers, environmental groups, and global food companies, the voluntary agreement followed a Greenpeace campaign exposing the use of soya from deforested land in animal feed. Since the moratorium, Amazonian deforestation dropped sharply, reaching a historic low in 2012. Although rates rose under Jair Bolsonaro, they have declined under President Lula’s current administration.
Environmentalists warn that suspending the moratorium could open an area the size of Portugal to deforestation. Local smallholder farmers, like Raimundo Barbosa near Santarém, say forest clearance destroys the environment, increasing temperatures and reducing rainfall and river water levels.
Pressure to lift the ban is increasing as Brazil prepares to open a major railway linking its southern agricultural heartland to the Amazon, reducing transport costs for soya and encouraging further land clearing.
Scientists monitoring the rainforest through long-term projects, including the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment (LBA), warn that deforestation, fires, and heat stress are reducing the forest’s ability to produce rainfall, creating feedback loops that kill more trees. If unchecked, vast areas of the Amazon could transition to savannah or dry grassland, releasing massive carbon amounts, altering global weather patterns, and threatening millions of people and countless species.
