China and Southeast Asian countries have made progress towards a long-awaited agreement to manage tensions in the South China Sea, but will miss their target of completing negotiations by the end of this year.
Three regional diplomats familiar with the discussions told the Associated Press on Wednesday that both sides had provisionally agreed on around 80% of the proposed agreement’s paragraphs following the latest round of negotiations last month.
However, several major disagreements remain, including the geographical areas covered by the pact, the definition of sensitive terms and whether the agreement should be legally binding.
The proposed Code of Conduct (COC) is intended to prevent disputes and occasional confrontations in the strategically important waterway from escalating into a wider conflict that could threaten regional stability and global trade.
China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) began negotiations in 2005, with the proposed agreement primarily calling for self-restraint and discouraging aggressive actions that could trigger clashes.
After years of negotiations, which were repeatedly affected by tensions and incidents in the disputed waters, both sides agreed in 2023 to accelerate discussions and aim to finalise the pact by 2026.
However, the three diplomats said negotiations would have to continue next year, when Singapore takes over ASEAN’s rotating chairmanship. They spoke anonymously because they were not authorised to discuss the negotiations publicly.
The Philippines, which holds ASEAN’s chairmanship this year, increased the frequency of meetings to at least once a month in an effort to speed up progress and give negotiators more opportunities to resolve outstanding issues.
China and Malaysia, which currently oversees ASEAN’s overall relations with Beijing, jointly led at least 10 major rounds of negotiations this year.
The progress and remaining disagreements are expected to feature prominently at the ASEAN summit in Manila, which begins this weekend. Leaders will also meet representatives from regional and Western powers, including the United States and China.
The South China Sea remains a major source of territorial disputes involving China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.
The contested waters are strategically important because of their busy international shipping routes and believed deposits of oil and natural gas beneath the seabed.
Tensions have been particularly serious between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces, with confrontations escalating around several disputed maritime features in recent years.
One of the deadliest incidents occurred in 1988, when a clash between Chinese and Vietnamese forces over a disputed reef killed dozens of Vietnamese military personnel.
Manila-based geopolitical analyst Julio Amador III said the proposed agreement alone might not be enough to prevent aggression in the disputed waters.
He argued that countries needed to combine the code with other measures, including diplomatic efforts, legal action and stronger military capabilities.
“Restraining great powers takes a lot of effort,” Amador said, referring to China.
“We cannot be a one-trick pony as a country. You need to have all the tools, whether it’s a code of conduct, whether you bring a case against China or whether you increase your military spending.”
The South China Sea has long been regarded as a potential flashpoint in Asia and remains a sensitive area in the wider rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
The United States has repeatedly warned that it is committed to defending the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, if Filipino forces come under armed attack, including in the disputed waters.
China, meanwhile, has urged Washington to stay out of what it considers a regional dispute between Asian countries.
