Thailand prepares to head to the polls this Sunday in a critical election that pits popular reformists against the entrenched conservative establishment, with the shadow of former leader Thaksin Shinawatra looming from his prison cell.
The next government will face numerous challenges, including a volatile border dispute with Cambodia that led to deadly clashes twice last year, and the ongoing threat of multibillion-dollar transnational cyberscam networks operating from the region. Economic growth remains sluggish, and the tourism sector has yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels. Analysts predict no single party will win a clear parliamentary majority, setting the stage for complex coalition negotiations.
Political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak said, “There are forces beyond the political arena in Thailand that call the final shots. It’s not about the election, it’s about the dissolutions.”
Thailand’s main progressive party from the 2023 election, Move Forward, won the most seats but saw its prime ministerial candidate blocked and the party later dissolved by court order. Its successor, the People’s Party, has stepped into its place. Kitti Sattanuwat, 64, attending a final rally for the party, said: “When the system won’t let us form a government, we simply can’t. That’s OK, we can fight again. There is hope. People must live with hope.”
Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party, which came second in 2023, initially formed a coalition with conservative Bhumjaithai. However, the government’s prime minister was ousted by a court, succeeded by Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was also judicially removed. Parliament then appointed Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister last September, making him Thailand’s third premier in just two years, highlighting the country’s political instability.
Thailand’s modern political history is marked by military coups, bloody protests, and judicial interventions. The 2014 coup led to five years of junta rule and a military-drafted constitution that gives significant powers to appointed institutions, including the senate. Political scientist Napon Jatusripitak noted, “People who are elected have been able to be undermined by people who are not elected. That’s not necessarily a good thing for a country where democratic experience has been turbulent.”
Opinion polls currently place the People’s Party as the frontrunner, with Anutin’s Bhumjaithai in second place. Analysts suggest Anutin could retain the premiership by forming another coalition with Pheu Thai, which now ranks third. Pheu Thai’s support has dwindled following Paetongtarn’s removal over her handling of the Cambodia dispute, with Thaksin remaining jailed on corruption charges. His nephew, Yodchanan Wongsawat, is attempting to restore the family’s political influence as the potential fifth Shinawatra prime minister, though recent polls show the party’s backing at just 16%.
While Bhumjaithai campaigns on national defence credentials, the People’s Party advocates ending mandatory military service and reducing the number of generals. Major parties continue to push populist economic policies, with Pheu Thai promising nine daily prizes of one million baht (approximately RM131,000) to stimulate spending. A concurrent referendum will allow voters to express support for constitutional reform in principle, though no specific measures are currently outlined.
This election will not only determine Thailand’s next government but also test the resilience of its democratic institutions amid decades of political turbulence and deep-seated influence from unelected power structures.
