U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Monday that Washington could sharply escalate military action against Iran if Tehran attempted to block oil shipments from the Middle East, while forecasting a rapid resolution to the ongoing conflict.
The warning came amid volatile global markets reacting to concerns that Iran’s security forces were consolidating behind new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and showed no signs of backing down. Oil prices surged before partially retreating as investors weighed Trump’s comments about a short war and reports of potential easing of Russian energy sanctions.
Trump said U.S. strikes had already inflicted significant damage on Iran’s air force and navy and suggested the conflict would conclude well before the four-week timeline he had previously outlined, though he did not specify what constitutes victory. “We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” he said, referring to potential actions if Iran interfered with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Responding to the U.S. threats, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared that no oil would leave the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue. “We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesperson said, according to Iranian state media.
Meanwhile, crowds rallied across several Iranian cities supporting Mojtaba Khamenei, holding portraits of his father, the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike on the conflict’s first day. Supporters hailed the new leader as a continuation of Iran’s established system, while opponents expressed fear that hopes for change were fading.
“The Guards and the system remain powerful, with tens of thousands of forces ready to defend the regime. Ordinary citizens have no power,” said Babak, a 34-year-old businessman in Arak.
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting tanker traffic for over a week and forcing oil producers to pause output. Brent crude futures spiked about 7%, briefly jumping as much as 29% during trading after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members cut supplies, before easing in post-settlement trading. Rising gasoline prices are politically sensitive in the U.S., particularly ahead of the November midterm elections.
After discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said the U.S. would waive oil-related sanctions for select countries to ease shortages, potentially including further relaxation of Russian oil sanctions, alongside options like releasing strategic reserves or limiting U.S. exports.
Tehran experienced heavy black smoke after an oil refinery was struck, escalating attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned of risks to air, water, and food safety. Turkey reported that NATO air defences intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran entering Turkish airspace.
Israel reported additional strikes in central Iran and in Beirut, Lebanon, continuing operations after cross-border fire from Iran-backed Hezbollah. Casualties from U.S.-Israeli attacks include at least 1,332 Iranian civilians killed, thousands wounded, and over 400 deaths reported in Lebanon with nearly 700,000 displaced. In Israel, one man died from shrapnel injuries near Tel Aviv’s international airport, raising the Israeli toll to 11 from Iranian strikes.
The situation underscores escalating tensions in the Middle East, significant humanitarian impacts, and ongoing volatility in global energy markets.
