For the UN’s leading climate science body, 2025 is a critical year: it marks the point when global greenhouse gas emissions must begin to fall sharply to limit the worst impacts of climate change.
Instead, a study released on November 13 predicts that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels will hit a new record in 2025. Humanity is rapidly approaching the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with just four more years of current-level CO2 emissions projected to push the planet past that threshold. The report was released during the ongoing COP30 UN climate talks in Belém, Brazil.
The study, conducted by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), an international consortium of scientists, estimates that CO2 emissions from coal, oil, and gas will reach 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025 — a 1.1% increase from 2024. Emissions also grew by 1.1% in 2024 compared with 2023.
The report notes that emissions are expected to rise in the US and the European Union, reversing long-term declines, while growth in China and India is projected to slow due to reduced coal demand. Coal remains the world’s largest source of CO2.
“Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been persistently hovering around 1% growth per year for the last few years,” said Dr. Pep Canadell, GCP executive director. “However, we do see signs of slower growth in major emitters like China, and real declines in many medium and small emitters. It is now possible that global emissions could peak within the next three to five years.”
The GCP analysis, now in its 20th year, is produced by more than 100 scientists from dozens of institutions worldwide.
