Japan could face a significant blow to its tourism industry, with potential losses reaching US$1.2 billion (RM5 billion) as Chinese travellers cancel holiday plans in response to worsening diplomatic tensions, Bloomberg reported.
Travel-data firm China Trading Desk estimates that roughly 30 per cent of the 1.44 million China-to-Japan trips planned through December have already been scrapped after Beijing advised its citizens to avoid visiting the country.
Chief Executive Subramania Bhatt said about 70 per cent of the decline stems from immediate departures being cancelled or postponed, while new bookings have nearly dried up. The cancellations have already stripped Japan of at least US$500 million in expected tourist spending, a figure expected to more than double by the end of 2025.
Chinese tourists typically spend over US$900 million per month in Japan. Bhatt described the situation as “a very sharp shock to Japan demand out of China,” noting that the latest travel advisory is stronger than similar warnings in previous years.
The travel chill follows remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi linking a potential Taiwan conflict to the possibility of deploying Japanese troops, which angered China and prompted retaliatory measures, including a suspension of seafood imports.
Group and package tours, which constitute about half of the cancelled trips, along with individual leisure bookings, have seen the most impact. Major Chinese airlines and Cathay Pacific have waived cancellation fees on Japan routes, further encouraging withdrawals.
Two state-owned Chinese travel agencies have reportedly cancelled pre-booked group tours to mitigate policy risks and changing public sentiment. Before the advisory, China-Japan bookings for 2025 were running around 25 per cent above last year’s levels but are now lagging behind 2024.
Tokyo and Osaka, Japan’s most popular gateways, have been hit hardest, particularly from flights originating in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou. Chinese tourists account for roughly a quarter of Japan’s annual arrivals and contributed 27 per cent of inbound spending between July and September. The weak yen had boosted luxury consumption among Chinese visitors, but losses could reach US$600 million if the slump continues.
Bhatt warned that if mainland Chinese travellers continue to avoid Japan through 2026, cumulative losses could reach as high as US$9 billion. However, he noted a glimmer of optimism: while year-end travel plans are being cancelled, bookings for January remain stable, suggesting travellers hope the situation may improve by then.
