The United Nations weather agency has issued a stark warning that a moderate to potentially strong El Niño event is developing, raising concerns over soaring global temperatures, extreme weather events and rising food prices in the months ahead.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures in the Pacific are fuelling the climate phenomenon, which is expected to persist until at least November.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, disrupting weather patterns across the globe and often triggering severe climate events.
The WMO forecasts above-average temperatures in many parts of the world between June and August, with the possibility of prolonged heatwaves, droughts, floods and intense storms affecting millions of people.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged governments and communities to prepare for the worst.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event that could worsen drought conditions, increase heavy rainfall and intensify heatwaves on land and across the oceans,” she warned.
Climate experts say El Niño can dramatically alter weather conditions around the world. Increased rainfall is expected in parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia, while countries such as Australia, Indonesia, Central America and parts of South Asia could face severe drought conditions.
The phenomenon is also known to increase hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, further raising concerns among disaster management agencies.
The last major El Niño event between 2023 and 2024 played a significant role in making 2024 the hottest year ever recorded globally, according to the WMO.
Beyond extreme weather, experts are warning of wider consequences, including increased spread of mosquito- and tick-borne diseases, reduced food production and growing pressure on water supplies.
“Communities that are already struggling could be pushed beyond their limits,” Saulo said.
Consumers may also feel the impact at supermarket shelves. Agricultural producers are closely monitoring the situation amid fears that El Niño could damage crops and drive up food prices.
One sector under particular scrutiny is cocoa production. Major growing regions in Ecuador and West Africa, which together account for around 60 per cent of global cocoa output, could face reduced harvests if weather conditions deteriorate.
Hein Schumacher, chief executive of one of the world’s largest cocoa processors, warned that production losses could further tighten supply and increase costs.
The WMO said unusually warm subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific — measured at more than six degrees Celsius above average in some areas — are acting as a vast reservoir of heat that is accelerating surface warming.
Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing El Niño as another urgent reminder of the need to accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy.
“The world must treat this as the climate warning that it is,” Guterres said. “El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of an already warming planet.”
With scientists continuing to monitor developments closely, authorities around the world are being urged to strengthen preparedness measures as the risk of climate-related disruptions continues to grow.
