Scientists are warning that a potentially powerful “super El Nino” may be rapidly forming in the Pacific Ocean, raising fears of extreme weather and record-breaking global temperatures in the coming years.
Forecasters say ocean temperatures across key parts of the tropical Pacific are warming at an unusually fast pace, with some experts suggesting the developing El Nino could become one of the strongest ever recorded.
However, researchers caution that unpredictable atmospheric conditions — especially changes in trade winds — could still determine whether the event grows into a historic climate phenomenon or weakens before reaching full strength.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration currently estimates there is around an 80 per cent chance that El Nino conditions will officially develop by July.
Scientists have already detected massive pools of unusually warm water beneath the Pacific Ocean surface, while some weather agencies predict sea temperatures could climb 2.5 degrees Celsius or more above average later in 2026.
Only three major El Nino events in modern history — in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 — have exceeded the 2-degree threshold commonly associated with “super El Nino” conditions.
Professor Adam Scaife from the Met Office said the developing event could potentially become the strongest in decades.
“There’s definitely something coming, and it looks like it will be a big event,” he said.
El Nino develops when the ocean and atmosphere interact in ways that alter air pressure, cloud systems and wind patterns across the Pacific region.
One major warning sign for powerful El Nino events is the weakening of trade winds that normally blow from east to west along the equator.
But scientists say those winds remain highly unpredictable and could still strengthen unexpectedly, slowing down or even reversing the growth of the phenomenon.
Michelle L’Heureux, a climate expert with NOAA, explained that these wind patterns remain one of the biggest uncertainties in forecasting the eventual strength of the developing El Nino.
“When that happens, it pauses the growth of El Nino or even reverses it,” she said.
Experts warn that a major El Nino could intensify global heatwaves, droughts, floods and severe weather events worldwide.
Historically, strong El Nino periods have been linked to drought conditions in parts of Indonesia, Australia and the Amazon, disruptions to India’s monsoon season and major rainfall shifts across tropical regions.
Scientists also believe 2027 could potentially become the hottest year ever recorded if an extreme El Nino fully develops this year.
Many of Earth’s hottest years — including 1998, 2010, 2016, 2023 and 2024 — either followed major El Nino events or occurred during them.
Researchers stress that climate change is making the situation even more dangerous by adding extra heat and moisture into the atmosphere and oceans.
This means even a moderate El Nino today could create far more severe impacts than similar events decades ago.
Felicity Gamble from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said climate change has altered weather systems so dramatically that historical El Nino patterns are becoming less reliable as forecasting guides.
“What happened during an El Nino event 20 years ago is probably quite different to how it might manifest these days,” she explained.
Australian forecasters are now warning the current event could potentially reach 2.8 degrees Celsius above average — a level that could place it among the strongest El Nino events ever observed.
