Malaysia is facing two major weather threats in the coming months, with the Northeast Monsoon expected to bring prolonged heavy rain and flooding, followed by potentially hotter and drier conditions from a possible Super El Nino.
The Northeast Monsoon, known locally as the MTL, began on Oct 27 and is expected to last until March 2027. During this period, between three and five episodes of continuous heavy rain are forecast, particularly from November to January, raising the risk of floods in low-lying areas and locations near rivers.
Recent weather patterns have offered an early glimpse of the challenges ahead, with heavy rain almost every afternoon over the past week triggering several flash floods in Kuala Lumpur. The incidents disrupted traffic and affected residents’ daily activities.
Flooding has also been reported in Perak, Kedah and Negri Sembilan, highlighting the need to remain alert throughout the monsoon season.
However, the Northeast Monsoon and El Nino are not expected to affect every part of the country in the same way or necessarily occur one after another. Rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are likely to differ depending on regional and seasonal conditions.
Climatology expert Professor Emeritus Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said the Northeast Monsoon in Peninsular Malaysia generally has two main phases.
Between November and December, heavy rain is usually concentrated along the East Coast, particularly Kelantan and Terengganu, as well as northern Kedah. The rain belt then shifts southwards towards Johor and Sarawak from January to February.
He said the movement of the monsoon trough and monsoon surges, which bring strong winds, were among the factors that could trigger prolonged rainfall and increase flood risks.
However, the strong influence of El Nino could reduce the intensity and duration of rainfall throughout the monsoon season, particularly in November and December. This could potentially lower the likelihood of major floods similar to those experienced in 2021.
Azizan also expects the number of monsoon surges to fall from the usual seven or eight episodes to around five or six. This could also reduce the risk of large waves, coastal erosion and rising sea levels caused by storm surges along coastal areas facing the South China Sea.
Nevertheless, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) climatology and climate change expert Prof Emeritus Fredolin Tangang cautioned that lower average rainfall does not mean Malaysia will be free from flooding.
He said extreme weather events could still occur even when El Nino weakens the overall intensity of the Northeast Monsoon.
“Although on average the MTL weakens during a strong El Nino, this does not mean we will not face the flooding phenomena. It still needs to be monitored, we still need to be prepared,” he told Bernama.
Meanwhile, the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) expects a possible Super El Nino to bring hotter and drier weather next year, particularly between late January and March. Maximum temperatures could potentially exceed 41 degrees Celsius.
Fredolin said the risk of hot weather and heatwaves in Peninsular Malaysia could become more pronounced around March and April.
In northern Borneo, particularly northern Sarawak and Sabah, drier conditions could increase the risk of forest and peatland fires until April or May 2027.
He said rainfall brought by the Northeast Monsoon to southern Sumatra and Kalimantan was expected to help reduce the risk of forest and peatland fires that contribute to transboundary haze before drier conditions potentially shift towards northern Borneo.
Azizan, meanwhile, warned that prolonged hot and dry weather could also increase the likelihood of local haze caused by open burning, including the burning of rice straw in Kedah. However, the impact was expected to be more limited than that of transboundary haze.
Beyond haze and fires, reduced rainfall could also place pressure on Malaysia’s water supply, particularly dams that provide water for domestic consumption and agriculture.
Azizan identified the Timah Tasoh Dam in Perlis and the Muda and Pedu dams in Kedah as water reserves at risk of declining if dry conditions persist.
The situation is particularly concerning because northern Peninsular Malaysia typically depends on rainfall during the monsoon transition period, usually between April and May, to replenish its water reserves.
Drier conditions could also affect agriculture, especially off-season rice cultivation in the northern region, widely known as the Peninsula’s rice bowl.
Fredolin warned that dwindling water resources and lower agricultural yields could threaten food security and push food prices higher.
The public could also face increased health risks, including heatstroke and other illnesses associated with prolonged exposure to high temperatures.
He stressed that advances in climate science should be incorporated into disaster management planning. As El Nino can be forecast months in advance, authorities have an opportunity to prepare and introduce measures to minimise its potential impact.
