Efforts to end the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran appear to have stalled after fresh exchanges of fire in the Gulf on Friday, even as intelligence assessments suggest Tehran could withstand a naval blockade for several more months.
A US intelligence review, reportedly referenced in a CIA assessment, indicates that Iran would not face severe economic pressure for around another four months under a US blockade of its ports, highlighting the limited leverage Washington currently holds in negotiations.
The analysis was first reported by The Washington Post and comes as both sides continue diplomatic efforts to end a war that has already disrupted regional stability and global energy flows.
Recent days have seen renewed clashes around the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil shipping route, with the United Arab Emirates also reporting a new missile and drone attack on Friday.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington was awaiting Iran’s response to a US proposal aimed at ending the war, describing the situation as highly fluid.
“We should know something today. We’re expecting a response from them,” Rubio told reporters in Rome.
Iranian officials, however, said discussions were still ongoing, with no formal reply issued by mid-afternoon in Washington.
According to Iranian media reports, sporadic naval confrontations also occurred between Iranian forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, though the situation was later said to have calmed.
The US military said it struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, forcing them to turn back.
Iran has reportedly restricted non-Iranian shipping through the strait since the conflict escalated, while the US has also increased naval pressure in the region.
Oil markets reacted to the instability, with Brent crude briefly rising above US$101 per barrel before easing slightly.
The conflict has also extended to Gulf airspace, with the UAE saying its defence systems intercepted incoming missiles and drones, resulting in several injuries.
Iran has repeatedly targeted Gulf states hosting US military facilities throughout the conflict, further widening regional tensions.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi accused Washington of undermining ceasefire efforts, saying diplomatic solutions were repeatedly being replaced with military action.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury announced new sanctions targeting individuals and companies linked to Iran’s military supply chains, including entities in China and Hong Kong, as part of efforts to curb Tehran’s drone production capabilities.
Washington said it would continue economic pressure alongside diplomatic engagement, warning of further sanctions against foreign firms supporting Iran’s military network.
The developments come ahead of expected high-level diplomatic engagements between the US and China, as global powers watch closely for signs of escalation or de-escalation in the Gulf crisis.
