Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced on Monday (Jan 19) that she plans to dissolve parliament ahead of a snap election scheduled for February 8.
“Following the dissolution of the lower house on Jan 23, campaigning will begin on Jan 27, with voting and counting to take place on Feb 8,” Takaichi said at a press conference.
Japan’s first female prime minister is banking on strong poll numbers to lead the unpopular ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to victory. The LDP has governed Japan almost continuously for decades, despite frequent changes in leadership.
Takaichi was appointed prime minister in October, and her Cabinet currently enjoys high approval ratings, even as her party’s overall popularity remains flagging. However, the ruling bloc—which includes coalition partner Japan Innovation Party (JIP)—holds only a slim majority in the powerful lower house, potentially complicating the passage of key policies such as “proactive” fiscal spending and defence budget increases.
“If the LDP secures a majority on its own in the lower house, that will allow her to pursue policies without concessions to other parties,” said Sadafumi Kawato, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo.
Takaichi’s Cabinet approved a record ¥122.3 trillion (US$768 billion) budget for the 2026 fiscal year, aiming for rapid parliamentary approval to address inflation and bolster the world’s fourth-largest economy. Opposition parties, however, argue that dissolving the lower house risks delaying the budget’s passage. Jun Azumi of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) warned it could “sacrifice livelihoods.”
Some voters share these concerns. Masaaki Tokuno, a 64-year-old bicycle lot manager, told AFP that tackling inflation should come before holding an election. Reports suggest the LDP may campaign on a potential cut to the food tax to ease the burden of rising grocery costs.
Analysts also see the snap election as a chance for Takaichi to strengthen her position amid tensions with China. Relations between Tokyo and Beijing have worsened since November, when Takaichi suggested Japan might intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan.
Mikitaka Masuyama, dean of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, warned that a Takaichi victory could prompt China to escalate pressure, using trade restrictions or other measures to send a message to Japanese voters. China recently imposed a broad export ban on “dual-use” goods with potential military applications and restricted rare-earth exports critical for electronics and defense industries.
According to a poll by Asahi newspaper, 60% of respondents said they are concerned about the impact of worsening Japan-China relations on the economy.
Takaichi’s predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, saw the LDP and its former coalition partner Komeito lose majorities in both parliamentary chambers in recent national elections. Smaller parties, such as the populist Sanseito, gained support, while Komeito and the CDP have formed an alliance to challenge Takaichi and appeal to swing voters.
