Ukraine’s military is preparing for the possibility of a fresh Russian offensive from the country’s northern border, although any renewed attempt to capture Kyiv is considered unlikely, according to the nation’s top military commander.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said intelligence assessments indicate that the most likely threat would come from Russia’s Bryansk region. Rather than launching another assault on the Ukrainian capital, he believes Moscow’s objective would be to push into the Chernihiv region and force Ukraine to divert troops from other parts of the 1,250-kilometre frontline.
Syrskyi said such a strategy would allow Russian forces to stretch Ukraine’s defences and reduce the number of reserve troops available for active combat elsewhere. Despite the threat, he stressed that Ukrainian forces are already making preparations for any potential offensive from the north.
The Ukrainian commander also played down fears of Belarus joining the conflict directly. Although Belarus allowed Russia to use its territory during the initial invasion in 2022, Syrskyi said he does not believe the Belarusian leadership would once again permit its territory to be used as a launchpad for a major offensive. He added that Ukraine is nevertheless continuing to monitor the situation closely.
His remarks come after weeks of warnings from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Russia had been attempting to pressure Belarus into taking a greater role in the war. Kyiv also recently claimed that relay stations allegedly used to support Russian attacks had been dismantled following diplomatic pressure on Minsk.
Despite concerns over a possible new offensive, Syrskyi said there are encouraging signs on the battlefield. He noted that Russian frontline activity has dropped by around 30 per cent in recent weeks, suggesting that Russian troops may be showing signs of exhaustion. At the same time, Ukraine has continued its long-range strikes against Russian targets, particularly oil-related infrastructure, as fighting between the two countries enters its fifth year.
