Taiwan has warned that China’s steadily increasing “grey zone” tactics could gradually reshape the status quo in the Taiwan Strait without triggering a conventional war, leaving the international community unaware until it is too late.
Speaking at a forum in Taipei on Wednesday, Ocean Affairs Council Minister Kuan Bi-ling said Beijing’s growing maritime pressure is affecting not only Taiwan but also Japan and the Philippines, particularly through its activities in the disputed South China Sea.
Kuan, whose agency oversees Taiwan’s Coast Guard, said the greatest danger lies in the gradual escalation of actions that individually may not appear serious enough to spark an international crisis.
“Each individual action may not trigger a crisis, and each escalation may still fall short of war. But when these actions accumulate over time, they can create an entirely new status quo,” she said.
China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory despite the island’s self-governed status, continues to send military aircraft and naval vessels near Taiwan almost daily while also increasing the use of so-called “grey zone” tactics that stop short of open conflict.
These include regular China Coast Guard patrols off Taiwan’s east coast, a move strongly rejected by Taipei, which says Beijing has no legal authority over Taiwan’s waters.
Kuan warned that sustained pressure from China could eventually force changes to commercial shipping routes, increase insurance costs and place greater strain on frontline personnel.
She also cautioned that repeated international assessments dismissing each incident as “not yet a crisis” could gradually normalise behaviour that should never be accepted.
“In the end, we may suddenly realise that no decisive war ever took place, yet the original status quo has already disappeared,” she said.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to the remarks. Beijing has repeatedly blamed Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te for escalating tensions, accusing him of promoting separatism, while Lai maintains that only the people of Taiwan have the right to determine the island’s future.
Last month, the United States, Britain, France and Germany jointly expressed concern over new China Coast Guard patrols off Taiwan’s east coast.
Also attending the Taipei forum was Tammy Duckworth, marking the first visit by a US senator to Taiwan since US President Donald Trump met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in May.
