Kelantan and Terengganu are expected to face continuous heavy rain in November, with Pahang and Johor forecast to experience similar conditions in December, followed by Sarawak in January.
The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) said three to five episodes of continuous heavy rain were expected between November and January during the early phase of the northeast monsoon.
Its National Weather and Earthquake Operations Centre senior director Maqrun Fadzli Mohd Fahmi shared the forecast during a media engagement session on the government’s monsoon preparations at the Special Malaysia Search and Rescue Team (SMART) headquarters.
Also present were National Disaster Management Agency (Nadma) director-general Datuk Meor Ismail Meor Akim, Malaysian Civil Defence Force deputy chief commissioner (operations) Ghazali Abdul Rahman and SMART commander Abdul Manaf Che Isa.
The northeast monsoon began on Oct 27 and is expected to continue until mid-March. Maqrun said warnings of continuous rain, strong winds and rough seas would be issued up to three days in advance.
He cautioned that the risk of major floods would rise if prolonged heavy rainfall coincided with high tides.
Despite the expected heavy-rain episodes, overall monsoon rainfall is forecast to remain below the climatological average, particularly in the northern peninsula, Perak, Sabah and parts of Pahang and Kelantan.
Maqrun also revealed that El Niño had reached a strong level by September and was expected to exceed 2.0°C by the end of the year, potentially reaching the “super” level. The phenomenon is forecast to persist until mid-2027.
During the 2015/16 super El Niño, monsoon rainfall dropped by 30 per cent in the peninsula and 45 per cent in Sabah, while Sarawak did not record a significant decline.
MetMalaysia also expects several states to experience below-average rainfall in particular months.
Southern Johor and eastern Sabah are forecast to receive less rain in October, while Sabah is expected to experience below-average rainfall from November to March.
Perlis and Kedah are expected to see reduced rainfall between January and March, while Penang and Perak are forecast to experience similar conditions from February to March.
In March, Kelantan, Pahang, Labuan, Sabah and Sarawak are expected to receive slightly below-average rainfall.
However, southern Sarawak is forecast to receive slightly above-average rainfall in January.
From January to March, rainfall is expected to decline further, particularly in the northern states and Sabah, potentially bringing hotter, drier conditions and increasing the risk of more extreme heatwaves.
