Global food prices are expected to rise sharply next year as grain shipments face disruptions, crops come under threat from extreme weather, and fuel and fertiliser costs remain high, the World Bank warned on Wednesday.
Food prices are projected to increase by around 10% this year compared with 2025, followed by a further 7% rise in 2027, according to the Washington-based institution, as reported by German news agency dpa.
Energy prices are expected to climb even more steeply this year, with the World Bank forecasting an increase of nearly one-third compared with 2025. However, energy prices are projected to decline in 2027.
The sharp increase is largely attributed to the United States’ war against Iran, which has brought commodity shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to an almost complete standstill. Several months into the conflict, shipping activity through the strategic waterway remains below pre-war levels.
Overall, the World Bank expects commodity prices to rise by 23% this year before falling again in 2027.
“These projections assume there will be no major escalation in conflicts that disrupt global commodity supplies,” the World Bank said.
However, it warned that energy prices could climb even higher if the conflict in West Asia intensifies and damage to Russian oil infrastructure continues.
The institution also cautioned that energy prices rising beyond expectations, or more severe effects from the El Niño weather phenomenon, could trigger a food crisis.
Such a crisis could push more people into extreme poverty, as happened in the early 2010s.
The World Bank defines extreme poverty as living on less than US$3 a day. It estimates that around 811 million people worldwide currently fall into this category.
