US President Donald Trump is expected to seek China’s assistance in resolving the escalating conflict involving Iran during his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, although analysts believe Beijing is unlikely to fully support Washington’s demands.
According to sources familiar with preparations for the talks, the White House views China as one of the few countries with enough influence to persuade Iranian leaders to return to negotiations with the United States. China remains the largest buyer of Iranian oil and maintains close ties with Tehran.
However, analysts said Beijing is expected to avoid taking steps that could seriously weaken Iran economically or militarily, given its strategic interests in the Middle East.
While China may encourage Iran to resume diplomatic discussions, experts believe Xi will be reluctant to cut economic support for Tehran or halt the supply of dual-use goods that could support Iran’s military operations.
The conflict has driven global oil prices higher and raised concerns over stability in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that handles around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, including large volumes destined for China.
At the same time, Iran remains an important regional ally for Beijing and serves as a geopolitical counterbalance against the United States. Analysts also noted that the ongoing conflict has shifted American diplomatic and military attention away from the Indo-Pacific region, indirectly benefiting China’s strategic positioning.
Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at the Council for Strategic and International Relations in Washington, said Xi is approaching the summit with growing confidence following Trump’s retreat from aggressive tariff policies introduced last year.
Trump, meanwhile, publicly insisted he did not require China’s help to pressure Iran, citing the US naval blockade and ongoing negotiations.
“The Iranian regime knows their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said.
Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu criticised unilateral sanctions and urged countries to focus on preventing further escalation instead of blaming others.
Analysts said Washington’s options for pressuring Beijing remain limited despite the possibility of imposing sanctions on Chinese entities or banks involved in Iranian trade.
Although the US has sanctioned several China-based companies accused of helping Iran evade restrictions, experts believe those measures have had little impact because Washington has avoided directly targeting major Chinese financial institutions.
Experts warned that any major sanctions against China’s banking sector could trigger severe retaliation from Beijing, potentially reigniting trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Former US officials also cautioned that China could respond by restricting exports of critical minerals and rare earth materials essential to American industries, an issue that previously heightened tensions during earlier trade disputes.
Former US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said China is likely to remain cautious about becoming deeply involved in Middle East conflicts after observing the risks and instability faced by the United States in the region.
“It will be difficult to get the Chinese deeply involved under any circumstances. They will want to be careful because they can see political quicksand as well as the next guy,” he said.
