Barisan Nasional (BN) should not assume that victory in the Johor state election guarantees success in the 16th General Election (GE16), says DAP Strategic Director Liew Chin Tong.
In a broader context, political analysts continue to stress that state election outcomes do not always translate into federal-level victories, especially under Malaysia’s evolving multi-coalition landscape.
Liew said DAP’s decision to contest separately in Johor was driven by UMNO’s intention to use the state election as a platform to re-establish its dominance as before 2018.
He said cooperation between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and BN had generally proven successful in governing the country and facing elections together.
Liew added that there is a strong possibility both coalitions will continue working together in GE16, potentially resulting in straight fights between the Unity Government and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
However, he noted that some quarters still harbour ambitions of reviving UMNO’s past political dominance.
He also claimed that MCA has been pushing for BN to contest solo, arguing the party may only be allocated a limited number of parliamentary seats if cooperation with PH continues.
Liew said MCA, despite being part of the government, has often acted like an opposition voice by raising various issues that create concern within the Chinese community.
He added that divisions also exist within UMNO, with some leaders preferring to contest independently in order to restore the party’s former strength and propose its own prime ministerial candidate.
Liew stressed that the era of single-party dominance ended after the 2018 general election, with no party currently holding overwhelming control.
He said the most likely scenario in GE16 is a two-bloc contest between PH and PN, with BN playing a smaller role.
Liew also cited the 2022 general election results in Johor, where BN won nine parliamentary seats compared to PH’s 15, despite BN’s strong performance in the state election.
